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A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.

In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.

"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.

Earlier this year, Strobeck predicted that a recovery might come as soon as the first quarter of 2008.

The Tucson Association of Realtors also released a report this week showing sales declines in September, but a representative from the group said she believes the market is stabilizing.

Strobeck's report, released Tuesday, showed drops of about 20 percent in the number of new-home sales and about 18 percent in the number of existing-home sales in September compared with the same month last year.

The median, or middle price, for new homes fell about 8 percent to $235,496 compared with September 2006, according to Strobeck's report. The median price for existing homes rose by about 3 percent to $206,000, compared with the same month last year, according to the report.

Strobeck said builders are cutting back sharply in response to the slowdown. The volume of new home permits in September dropped to 286, the lowest monthly number since January 1993, according to the market letter.

"The home-building community is taking a very responsible action of cutting back on building homes in order to allow the market to absorb the homes that are out there," he said. He added that builders may need to focus more on lower-priced, entry-level housing to lure buyers.

The Realtors' monthly report, also released Tuesday, showed the number of sales fell more than 36 percent and the median price rose nearly 2.4 percent in September compared with the same month last year.

Judy Lowe, president of the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, noted that pending sales — those yet to close — were up more than 32 percent from the same month last year.

"That's an indicator that our closings in six weeks to two months will also be ahead of the closings of the same month a year ago," Lowe said. "To me, that shows the market is no longer in decline."

Pending contracts have been up for the past four months, according to the Realtors' report. However, the number of sales has still been lower than in the same months in 2006.

Lowe said there might be a lag caused by new-home closings, which may spend more time in the pending stage as homes are built.

She also noted that the number of homes on the market has fallen about 1 percent from the same month in 2006. Last month, there were 9,190 homes on the market, according to the Realtors' report.

Lowe said Tucson's growing population and employment will likely help the area emerge from the slowdown before 2010.

However, Strobeck, whose company is called Bright Future Business Consultants, said tighter mortgage-lending standards, a growing number of foreclosures and other financial problems may have a greater impact on the market in the future.

"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said about the 2010 projection and joked that he is now "wearing black all the time."

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