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The star's view: Voters who list themselves as independent may have much to say in the looming battle over the congressman's seat.
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.27.2005
Rep. Jim Kolbe's decision to vacate the congressional seat he's held for nearly 22 years will create a political tempest in Southern Arizona in the runup to the 2006 elections.
The results of next year's election - even the winnowing process we will see in the primaries - will reveal as much about the contenders as it does about the changing consciousness of the district.
Kolbe, a Republican, was generally seen as a centrist, even though the label seemed more applicable to his personal demeanor than to his voting record.
In an era when reasonable discourse in Washington has given way to venomous bombast, Kolbe had become an anachronism - a soft-spoken congressman who brought thoughtfulness and intelligence to the job. This newspaper did not always agree with Kolbe's viewpoint, but we do not dispute that he came by his opinions honestly and only after studying the issues and consulting his conscience.
Kolbe's voting record was usually that of a conformist Republican in lockstep with President Bush. He supported the president's tax cuts, voted in favor of drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, voted for the highly compromised Medicare prescription drug benefit, voted (along with many Democrats) to restrict liability lawsuits against gun manufacturers, and has been a supporter of the Iraq war.
Kolbe's last hurrah - the immigration bill he co-sponsored in the House - will be, to his constituents, a rallying point for both his supporters and opponents.
Immigration issues, the matter of tightening control over the Arizona border with Sonora, of stemming the flow of illegal immigrants across Southern Arizona's deserts and of creating a guest worker program to deal with the millions of illegal workers already here, are a top concern for voters in the Eighth Congressional District.
Kolbe has co-sponsored the House version of the Senate bill introduced by Sens. John McCain and Edward Kennedy in the Senate. That legislation is near the top of the agenda when Congress returns from its holiday recess.
It is likely to be the defining topic for Kolbe's successor. While we do not dispute its significance, it will be a tragedy if the forthcoming campaign becomes reduced to an exercise in emotional grandstanding over a single issue.
One of the Kolbe's strengths was that, despite his conservative views, he was not a polarizing influence. In Southern Arizona, it is just as easy to create divisions between conservatives and ultra-conservatives as it is to distinguish between Democrats and Republicans. Kolbe managed to walk a fine line between the various special interest organizations - with the exception of his opponents among the paramilitary groups that surfaced from time to time.
Throughout the years, Kolbe seemed to attract voters across the spectrum, with the exception of those on the extreme right. Voter registration figures for the district show 151,548 Republicans, 132,723 Democrats, and nearly 100,000 who identify themselves as independents or members of minority parties. Clearly, it's an open field, though Kolbe's margin of victory in recent years was comfortable enough to suggest an edge for Republicans.
Whether registration figures and that historic edge will do any good in the 2006 congressional election is questionable. Recent polls show President Bush's approval ratings at an all-time low, and this month's Democratic sweep locally and nationally does not bode well for Republicans anywhere. But then, there are those 100,000 voters who are independent or unaffiliated with a major party, and they can be a major factor.
Jim Kolbe took his role in Congress seriously and served honorably. We hope the contenders honor that legacy.
- S.N.
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